Kris Janowski - Media Relations
This is a summary of what was said by the UNHCR spokesperson at today's Palais des Nations press briefing in Geneva.

1) Kenya/Somalia

UNHCR and partner agencies (MSF Spain and Trocaire) are struggling to help vulnerable Somali refugees in a ramshackle border zone camp in northern Kenya where 17 people, most of them children, have died of disease and malnutrition since June 2. Health workers say contaminated water and lack of proper food are responsible for cases of diarrhea and conjunctivitis. MSF's newly established therapeutic feeding centre received 14 new patients on Thursday. Two children, one a refugee and the other a local child, died while being given treatment.

UNHCR estimates that there are 250 refugee families classified as vulnerable in Mandera town and the nearby makeshift camp, dubbed Border Point One, which is located a mere 500 meters from the border. In Mandera town, there are 100 vulnerable families. A number of the families are headed by elderly women and many include orphans and disabled persons.

UNHCR staff report that refugee children can be seen everywhere in Mandera town scavenging for food, begging and trying to find work to help their families survive. Women often have to walk a fair distance in search of firewood. Refugee leaders fear that this makes them vulnerable to abuse.

The situation on the border has calmed over the past two days, with no gunfire reported in the area. However, UNHCR continues to insist on authorisation to move the Somali refugees away from the border to existing refugee camps deeper inside Kenya. To date, the Kenyan authorities have declined permission to move the group.

2) Afghanistan

For the third week in a row, we've seen 100,000 Afghans return home under the joint UNHCR-Afghanistan Interim Authority assisted repatriation program that began on 1 March. The total number of assisted returnees now stands at more than 900,000, the vast majority of them coming back from Pakistan. More than 64,000 have returned so far from Iran and over 9,000 from the Central Asian states.

With the number of returnees from Pakistan having surpassed our initial planning figure of 400,000, we have now tripled our estimate for Pakistan to 1.2 million this year. In addition, we believe that another 200,000 Afghans have repatriated spontaneously since the Taliban fell. Inside the country, more than 160,000 internally displaced persons have been transported home, while many other IDPs have gone back on their own.

Despite the precarious conditions inside Afghanistan, the repatriation is already the largest and the fastest we've seen since the Iraqi Kurds returned home in 1991, also surpassing the massive 1999 return to Kosovo. The Afghans' enthusiasm has exceeded expectations, but in light of the declining pace of donor contributions, we fear that the sustainability of the refugees' return could be in jeopardy. If fresh contributions do not arrive, we may have to make some hard choices, including possibly reducing or even cutting assistance to future returnees.

3) Liberia

Following a few days of quiet, fighting has reportedly resumed in northern parts of Liberia around Bong County and Tubmanberg. While it is unclear whether certain areas have been taken by rebels or government forces, the stream of displaced and refugees continues to grow day by day. We are extremely worried about the refugees in the Sinje camps near Monrovia, who have been closed off from any UNHCR assistance since the fighting started near Ngbanga town several weeks ago. We have been in contact with them by radio and know that they will run out of food and fuel soon. Communication has so far been possible via radio, which will end when the fuel is finished. Without the green light from the Government on the safety of the road leading from Monrovia to the camps, UNHCR can not undertake any mission to provide additional food. We also fear that elements of the fighting forces at large in the region might start looting these unprotected refugee areas.

UNHCR is also worried about the plight of more than 150,000 people presently displaced within Liberia. The numbers of internally displaced people has increased steeply over the past weeks. According to figures from the LRRRC, UNHCR's counterpart in Liberia, around 58,300 are staying in and around the five major refugee/displaced areas across the country. The majority of recently displaced people, over 12,300, have gathered around Zuannah town. VOA camp is housing over 29,500 displaced, Sinje has 13,460 and Samukai has 3,000. All these camps and sites are in the vicinity of Monrovia town. Many of the displaced are housed in makeshift camps, classrooms, transit centres, and other temporary shelters. The whereabouts of the other approximately 100,000 displaced people are not exactly known. UNHCR is trying to assist some of the most needy of these displaced people as well, but we are constantly faced with budgetary constraints regarding a caseload which is not directly of our concern. Limited assistance in medical care and some temporary shelter is all we can give at this moment.

UNHCR is extremely hopeful that efforts towards peace will benefit the civilian population presently living in fear, distress and displacement all over the region. Guinea is presently housing close to 100,000 Liberian refugees, Sierra Leone over 24,000 and Côte d'Ivoire over 130,000.

Despite the increased tensions in the region, UNHCR in Liberia in continuing to register Sierra Leoneans who wish to return home. So far one thousand have signed up for return, but many refugees expressed the intention to sign up as soon as repatriation actually materialises. So far it has been impossible to plan any repatriations overland as the roads have been unsafe. UNHCR has been looking into repatriation possibilities by boat, but these so far have proved incredibly expensive. Liberia is still housing 35,736 refugees from Sierra Leone.

4) High Commissioner travels to Egypt

U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Ruud Lubbers travels to Cairo on Sunday to meet with Egyptian officials. Mr. Lubbers will also meet with Amr Moussa, Secretary General of the Arab League to review and seek ways to further enhance our cooperation.

This visit is part of our efforts to further strengthen links with the Arab world and Egypt. The High Commissioner will meet with Grand Sheikh Mohamed Sayed Tantawy who leads the Al-Azhar Mosque -- the world-renowned center for Islamic study and research. He will also meet with His Holiness Pope Shenouda III, the leader of the Orthodox Coptic Christian faith. An important part of Mr. Lubbers' visit to Egypt includes meetings with members of its civil society and with UNHCR Goodwill Ambassador Mr. Adel Imam, the Arab world's most famous comedian. Mr. Adel Imam has helped raise public awareness of UNHCR's work throughout the region.

UNHCR has worked closely with the Arab Republic of Egypt since 1954; Egypt acceded to the international refugee instruments in 1981. Egypt hosts more than 90,000 refugees and other persons of concern to UNHCR, including 70,000 Palestinians. The High Commissioner returns to Geneva early Tuesday.

END

[This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]
Kabul, 17 April (IRIN) - A four-day regional conference to discuss ways of boosting cooperation in Asia to curb infectious diseases in the region started in the Afghan capital, Kabul, on Monday.

The conference, entitled: "Health for All and Health by All: Communicable Diseases Recognise No Borders", is set to mainly focus on the six diseases, including cholera, HIV/AIDS, malaria, polio and tuberculosis (TB), still posing a health threat in the region.

"Delegates from the ministries of health of nine countries are taking part in the conference and will mainly discuss the need for mutual cooperation in preventing the spread of communicable diseases in the region," Mohammad Din Maarij, a technical adviser to the Ministry of Public Health, said in Kabul.

Delegates from Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are among the participants of the conference supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the World Health Organization (WHO).

Health Minister Said Mohammad Amin Fatimi said that the conference, the first of its kind held in Kabul, would be the first of many opportunities to exchange views and experiences on health issues affecting the countries in the region.

"Preservation of the health of our respective nations must be a regional effort for these diseases respect no national boundaries, spare no ethnic or racial group and exempt no political system," Fatimi noted.

"Only through cooperation and collaboration can we combat infectious diseases and improve the health of our nations," he added.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai is expected to address the conference on Wednesday and will stress the threat of contagious diseases to the region's economic growth and emphasise the benefit of collective action in the face of limited resources, according to officials at the health ministry.

War-battered Afghanistan has one of worst health indicators in the world and is largely dependent on international assistance for tackling various health problems. Many essential health services in the country were destroyed during some three decades of brutal civil war and internal strife.

According to WHO estimates, approximately 70,000 new TB cases occur annually in Afghanistan and an estimated 20,000 people in the country die from the disease every year. Two-thirds of Afghanistan's reported TB cases are amongst women. The Central Asian state is one of just six countries in the world where polio remains endemic - the remaining five are Nigeria, India, Niger, Somali and Pakistan.

[ENDS]

I. Introduction

1. A significant increase in the numbers of persons of concern to UNHCR brought new challenges in 2006. While there was a 14 per cent increase in refugee numbers from the previous year, the Office's involvement, together with other humanitarian partners, in protecting and assisting internally displaced persons (IDPs) under the inter-agency cluster approach, resulted in a doubling of IDP figures. Thanks to better data capturing, many more stateless people have been identified, also swelling numbers.

2. Despite a plethora of complex challenges, much progress has been achieved in upholding and strengthening international protection in many areas across the world in recent years, notably through sustained efforts to implement the Agenda for Protection. However, as many States increase their efforts to manage migration, the problems of identifying people with a well-founded fear of persecution within irregular mixed migration movements in order to ensure appropriate protection measures remain of particular concern to the Office today. This will be the main focus of discussions at the first meeting of the High Commissioner's Dialogue on Protection Challenges in December 2007.

3. Evolving partnership commitments, including moves to participate in the United Nations "Delivering as One" initiatives, as well as the increased responsibilities as lead agency for the protection, emergency shelter and camp management clusters in conflict-generated situations of internal displacement, have added impetus to UNHCR's determination to step up its efficiency, performance and results.

4. In February 2006, the Office launched an in-depth process of structural and management change designed to improve its flexibility and responsiveness to the needs of beneficiaries. The overall aim is to streamline and simplify organizational processes, reduce administrative costs and enhance the efficiency of field operations, thus providing better services to persons of concern. Alongside this, new financial and management structures and systems are being set in place to support the overall reform process.

Note: Includes the coverage of the Regional Disaster Response Adviser for Central Asia

Note: Map production date is estimated

Mensajes principales

El estado de la inseguridad alimentaria en el mundo 2009 es el 10.=BA informe de situación de la FAO sobre el hambre en el mundo desde la Cumbre Mundial sobre la Alimentación (CMA) de 1996. En el informe se destaca el hecho de que, incluso antes de que se produjeran la crisis alimentaria y la crisis económica, el n=FAmero de personas que padecían hambre había aumentado lenta pero constantemente. Sin embargo, el inicio de estas crisis provocó el incremento pronunciado del n=FAmero de personas que padecen hambre en el mundo.

Como resultado de la crisis económica mundial, los países en desarrollo están sufriendo disminuciones de las remesas, los beneficios de las exportaciones, la inversión extranjera directa y la asistencia extranjera, lo que provoca la pérdida de empleos e ingresos. Esta pérdida de ingresos se complica por los precios de los alimentos, que siguen siendo relativamente elevados en los mercados locales de muchos países pobres.

Como consecuencia, los hogares pobres se ven obligados a consumir menos comidas y alimentos menos nutritivos, reducir los gastos sanitarios y de educación y vender sus bienes.

A pesar de las dificultades financieras que afrontan los gobiernos de todo el mundo, la inversión en agricultura y las redes de seguridad siguen constituyendo partes esenciales de la respuesta eficaz que se debe dar para reducir la inseguridad alimentaria ahora y en el futuro.

El hambre estaba en aumento incluso antes de la crisis alimentaria y la crisis económica. El objetivo de la Cumbre Mundial sobre la Alimentación de reducir a la mitad el n=FAmero de personas subnutridas para que fuera inferior a los 420 millones de personas antes de 2015 no se logrará si contin=FAan las tendencias que prevalecían antes de ambas crisis.

La FAO estima que en 2009 hay 1 020 millones de personas subnutridas en todo el mundo. Esta es la mayor cifra de personas hambrientas desde 1970 y significa un empeoramiento de las tendencias insatisfactorias presentes ya antes de la crisis económica.

El incremento de la inseguridad alimentaria no es el resultado de malas cosechas, sino de los elevados precios nacionales de los alimentos, los menores ingresos y un desempleo en aumento, que han reducido el acceso de las personas pobres a los alimentos. En otras palabras, los beneficios derivados de la caída de los precios mundiales de los cereales se han visto más que contrarrestados por el declive económico mundial.

Para abordar la carga de las crisis consecutivas de los alimentos y la economía, las personas pobres reducen la diversidad de sus dietas y el gasto en necesidades esenciales, como la educación y los cuidados sanitarios. Ya se pusieron a prueba los mecanismos de adaptación durante la crisis alimentaria, y ahora los pobres se verán obligados a recurrir a=FAn más a sus escasos bienes, lo que creará trampas de pobreza y afectará negativamente a la seguridad alimentaria a largo plazo. La mortalidad infantil aumentará y las niñas se verán más afectadas que los niños.

Un sector agrícola saneado puede amortiguar los problemas económicos y de empleo en épocas de crisis, especialmente en los países más pobres. No obstante, las experiencias adquiridas en crisis económicas anteriores sugieren que la inversión en agricultura podría descender pronto. Se debe evitar dicha reducción para que la agricultura pueda servir de motor del crecimiento y de reducción de la pobreza y constituya un pilar a largo plazo del enfoque de doble componente para luchar contra el hambre. La mayor inversión en agricultura en las décadas de 1970 y 1980 ayudó en gran medida a reducir el n=FAmero de personas subnutridas. Junto con la agricultura, se debe prestar la debida atención al desarrollo del sector no agrícola en el medio rural, que representa otra vía para salir de la pobreza y la inseguridad alimentaria.

Las intervenciones relacionadas con las redes de seguridad deberían abordar el impacto inmediato en las personas vulnerables y proporcionar al mismo tiempo soluciones sostenibles para los problemas subyacentes. En cuanto pilares de apoyo a corto plazo del enfoque de doble componente, las redes de seguridad deben permitir a los beneficiarios acceder más fácilmente al crédito, así como a insumos modernos, y adoptar nuevas tecnologías, lo que les permitirá dejar de depender del programa de redes de seguridad. Para alcanzar estos objetivos, las redes de seguridad deben estar bien integradas en programas más amplios de asistencia social. Se deberá prestar especial ayuda a las personas pobres del medio urbano, ya que se vieron gravemente afectadas por la crisis alimentaria y es más probable que sufran el desempleo debido a la actual crisis económica.

El hecho de que el hambre estuviera en aumento incluso antes de la crisis alimentaria y la crisis económica sugiere que las soluciones actuales son insuficientes, y que la adopción de un enfoque basado en el derecho a la alimentación desempeñará una función importante en la erradicación de la inseguridad alimentaria. Para que dejen de padecer hambre, las personas que sufren inseguridad alimentaria necesitan tener control sobre los recursos, acceso a las oportunidades, y que se mejore la gobernanza en los ámbitos internacional, nacional y local.

Note: Map production date estimated.
Page also contains detailed map of food insecurity in Yemen as of October 2009.

Summary:

The Desert Locust (SGR) infestations persisted in May along the Red Sea coast in Saudi Arabia where aerial and ground control treated hoppers and swarms on more than 25,000 ha. Small-scale operations were carried out in Western Sahara in Algeria, in northwest Mauritania and southwestern Morocco. Breeding occurred in spring breeding areas in southeast Iran and western Pakistan where close to 12,700 ha were sprayed during this month. Control operations declined in southeastern Egypt and overall the situation remained fairly calm elsewhere in the outbreak and invasion areas during this period. No surveys were carried out in Mali, Niger, Tunisia, Chad and Libya during this period (CNLA/Mauritania, CNLAA/Morocco, DLCO-EA, DPPQS/India, FAO-DLIS, INPV/Algeria, and PPD/Sudan).

Natural disasters, including drought, earthquakes, floods, and wildfires, as well as ongoing complex emergencies and limited government capacity in the region, present significant challenges to vulnerable populations in Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia (EMCA). Between FY 2004 and FY 2013, USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) and USAID’s Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP) provided assistance in response to a range of disasters, including floods, wildfires, winter emergencies, and complex crises.

FAO Director-General addresses Ministerial Meeting of the Organization’s Regional Conference for the Near East

27 February 2014, Rome - The worsening of the food security situation in the Near East is not only caused by the structural constraints the region faces in producing enough food and an increasing dependence on food imports but by conflict, the flow of refugees and migration, FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva said today.

Opening the two-day ministerial segment of FAO’s Regional Conference for the Near East, Graziano da Silva underscored that these issues are not contained by national borders.

“They affect the region as a whole and have repercussions far beyond as well,” he said.

“We know that there is an intrinsic link between peace and food security, and between hunger and conflict.

“We have seen how dispute for food and over resources such as land and water have triggered conflict.

“Peace is fundamental to food security and food security is fundamental for keeping peace.”

MDG hunger target

The MDG target is still within reach at the global scale and in the Near East and North Africa, but a final push in the last 672 days before the deadline is needed, the Director-General told the conference.

Algeria, Djibouti, Jordan, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Morocco and Turkmenistan are among countries that have already met the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target to reduce by half the proportion of hungry people between 1990 and 2015.

In addition, Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates already had undernourishment levels below 5 percent in 1990, the baseline for the MDGs.

FAO Regional Initiatives

The FAO chief called on countries to support the implementation of three regional initiatives for the Near East and North Africa that FAO has launched in response to priorities identified by Member States: the Regional Initiative on Water Scarcity, the Regional Initiative on Building Resilience to Enhance Food Security and Nutrition, and the Regional Initiative on Small-scale Agriculture and Inclusive Rural Development.

Noting that 2014 is the International Year of Family Farming, he encouraged countries to increase support to family farmers in the region by ensuring access to adequate technologies, financial services, markets, and natural resources such as land and water.

He also encouraged countries to participate in discussions on the Committee on World Food Security’s proposed Principles for Responsible Agricultural Investments, which will help to ensure investments contribute to the development of family farmers.

Funding ‘major constraint’

During the period 2012-2013, $100 million were mobilized to support FAO’s work at national level, in particular in countries affected by conflict and emergencies, the Director-General reported.

“However, funding still remains a major constraint to scaling up FAO’s work at country level in the region,” he said, calling on higher-income countries in the region to step up their support.

Graziano da Silva said he hoped other countries would follow the good example of regional cooperation set by the Government of Iraq, whose contribution will help kick-start a Regional Solidarity Trust Fund.

A region-wide strategy and funding to support food security in Yemen is of particular importance, he said.

Le Directeur général de la FAO intervient à la Réunion ministérielle de la Conférence régionale pour le Proche-Orient

27 février 2014, Rome – L'aggravation de la situation de la sécurité alimentaire au Proche-Orient est liée non seulement aux problèmes structurels de production vivrière et de dépendance croissante vis-à-vis des importations alimentaires, mais aussi aux conflits, aux flux de réfugiés et aux migrations, a déclaré aujourd'hui le Directeur général de la FAO, José Graziano da Silva.

A la séance d'ouverture de la Réunion ministérielle de deux jours de la Conférence régionale de la FAO pour le Proche-Orient, M. Graziano da Silva a souligné que ces problèmes dépassent le cadre des frontières nationales.

"Ils touchent toute la région et ont des répercussions bien au-delà, a-t-il affirmé. Nous savons que la paix et la sécurité alimentaire sont indissolublement liées, au même titre que la faim et les conflits. Nous avons pu constater les conflits déclenchés par les litiges sur la nourriture et les ressources, comme la terre et l'eau.

"La paix est fondamentale pour la sécurité alimentaire, comme la sécurité alimentaire est fondamentale pour le maintien de la paix".

Cible des OMD

La cible des OMD est toujours à notre portée à l'échelle mondiale et au Proche-Orient–Afrique du Nord, mais il faudra fournir un dernier effort durant les 672 jours qui nous séparent de l'échéance, a ajouté le Directeur général.

Plusieurs pays de la région – Algérie, Djibouti, Jordanie, Kirghizistan, Koweït, Maroc et Turkménistan – ont déjà atteint la cible du premier Objectif du Millénaire pour le développement (OMD) visant à réduire de moitié, entre 1990 et 2015, la proportion de leur population qui souffre de la faim.

Par ailleurs, l'Arabie saoudite, l'Egypte, les Emirats arabes unis, la République islamique d'Iran, le Liban, la Libye et la Tunisie affichaient déjà des niveaux de sous-alimentation inférieurs à 5 pour cent en 1990, l'année de référence des OMD.

Initiatives régionales de la FAO

Le Chef de l'Organisation des Nations Unies a appelé les pays à soutenir la mise en œuvre de trois initiatives régionales pour le Proche-Orient et l'Afrique du Nord lancées par la FAO en réponse aux priorités dégagées par ses Etats membres: gestion de l'eau, renforcement de la résilience pour améliorer la sécurité alimentaire et la nutrition, et petite agriculture et développement rural inclusif.

Soulignant que 2014 est l'Année internationale de l'agriculture familiale, il a encouragé les pays à accroître leur soutien aux petits agriculteurs en leur garantissant un accès à des technologies adéquates, aux services financiers, aux marchés et aux ressources naturelles, comme la terre et l'eau.

Il a en outre incité les pays à participer aux débats sur les Principes pour un investissement agricole responsable proposés par le Comité de la sécurité alimentaire mondiale, qui permettront de veiller à ce que les investissements contribuent au développement de l'agriculture familiale.

Le problème des fonds

Durant la période 2012-2013, 100 millions de dollars ont été mobilisés en faveur des travaux de la FAO à l'échelle nationale, en particulier dans les pays victimes de conflits et de situations d'urgence, a précisé le Directeur général.

"Cepenant, la disponibilité de fonds demeure un obstacle majeur à la mise à l'échelle du travail de la FAO au niveau des pays dans la région", a-t-il indiqué, exhortant les pays de la région à plus haut revenu à intensifier leur soutien.

M. Graziano da Silva a manifesté l'espoir que d'autres pays suivent le bon exemple de la coopération régionale montré par le Gouvernement irakien, dont la contribution permettra de mettre en route le Fonds fiduciaire de solidarité régionale.

Il a en outre insisté sur l'importance d'une stratégie régionale et de financements en faveur de la sécurité alimentaire au Yémen.

The U.S. expanded its aerial campaign against Islamic State (IS) militants in late September with strikes in Syria’s north and east. The operation, which targets both IS and fighters linked to al-Qaeda’s central leadership and the affiliated group Jabhat al-Nusra, risks alienating other rebel groups in Syria and strengthening support for IS. The mainstream armed opposition faced another serious blow when most of the senior leadership of the influential group Ahrar as-Sham was killed in an unexplained bomb blast in early September. Meanwhile, IS continued its advance on the ground, including around the predominantly Kurdish city Kobani near the Turkish border causing some 160,000 Kurds to flee. (See our recent report and commentary on the possible fall of greater Aleppo and the impact this could have on the wider Syrian rebellion).

In Iraq, the beheading of captive U.S. journalists and a British aid worker by IS militants drew strong condemnations. U.S. President Obama vowed to dismantle the group’s “network of death” and several countries, including France and the UK, joined the U.S.-led aerial campaign against IS. Adding to the sectarian divides that aided IS’s initial rise, Iran continued to support Shiite militias in central Iraq, while Western and Iranian support for the Kurdish Regional Government provoked additional tensions by bypassing Baghdad. (See our recent commentary on the rise of the Islamic State, alternatively known as ISIL, ISIS or Daesh.)

The Syrian conflict continued to spill over into Lebanon. In September jihadi groups executed three Lebanese soldiers captured the previous month in the eastern city of Arsal, exacerbating ethnic and communal tensions, and sparking attacks on Syrian refugees. Clashes between the Lebanese army and Syrian rebels also continued in the east leaving several soldiers, Sunni militants and Hizbollah members dead.

Weeks of anti-government protests led by Yemen’s Huthis degenerated into several days of fighting in the capital Sanaa in mid-September. Over two hundred were killed as the Huthis clashed with rival forces loyal to General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar and, to a much lesser extent, Sunni Islamist fighters around Iman University. Large parts of the security forces sided with the Huthis who seized key parts of Sanaa, including government buildings, and were allowed to control security in the city. A new peace deal and power sharing agreement signed on 21 September called for the implementation of national dialogue outcomes and the government to be replaced, but the balance of power on the ground has shifted solidly towards the Huthis. Prospects for a Huthi withdrawal from the capital remain uncertain: a new prime minister has yet to be appointed, and since the agreement Huthis have surrounded and entered the homes of political enemies as well as attacking the home of Yemen’s national security chief Ali al-Ahmadi in late September. (See our most recent report on Yemen’s Huthis.)

After months of deadlock, Sudan’s armed and political oppositions signed a statement on principles for a national dialogue process that would include them both. The government, the SPLM-N and Darfur rebels agreed to meet in October – under the auspices of the African Union High Level Implementation Panel – to discuss a possible cessation of hostilities in all conflict areas. The African Union Peace and Security Council welcomed the planned talks.

September 2014 – Trends

• Deteriorated situations Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen
• Improved situations

October 2014 – Watchlist

• Conflict risk alerts Syria
• Conflict resolution opportunities Sudan

After a rainy season lull, South Sudan’s warring parties are preparing for major offensives with the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) this week launching attacks on Bentiu, capital of oil-producing Unity state (see our recent Conflict Alert). Hardliners in the government and the SPLA-IO appear determined to settle the conflict through war. Despite some signs of progress, nine months of peace talks have seen few results; instead, militias and self-defence forces are proliferating as their interests splinter, with many not effectively under the command and control of either main faction. Renewed conflict risks exacerbating widespread displacement and famine, as well as precipitating more atrocity crimes.

Burkina Faso’s President Blaise Compaoré resigned following intense pressure and violent protests against a possible extension to his 27-year rule. On 30 October, after several days of protests that left thirty dead, demonstrators against a proposed constitutional amendment to extend the presidential two-term limit stormed the parliament, setting it ablaze. The army stepped in but appears divided over who has taken the reins of power – army chief General Honoré Traoré and the Presidential Guard’s second-in-command, Colonel Isaac Zida, have both claimed to be head of state. It also remains unclear whether street protestors and political parties alike are ready to accept the 12-month military transition the army has announced.

Escalating violence in Bangui and deepening political animosities once again shook the Central African Republic’s fragile transition. The mobilisation of anti-balaka militias following a 7 October grenade attack resulted in violent clashes with Muslim residents that left several dead. Outside the capital violence continues to plague the central and western regions where French “Sangaris” forces clashed with ex-Seleka fighters and where banditry is on the rise. President Catherine Samba-Panza appears increasingly isolated amid persistent doubts over her appointment of Mahamat Kamoun as prime minister and an outcry following the disappearance of a significant tranche of Angolan financial aid.

Yemen’s Huthis continued their advance, bringing the country’s political transition to the brink of collapse. A late September UN-brokered peace and power-sharing agreement, aimed at preserving a nominal political process, appears to have little real impact. The Huthis consolidated their control in the north following their mid-September seizure of the capital, Sanaa, and expanded into central Yemen where hundreds were killed in clashes with their rivals. On 31 October the Huthis and their tribal supporters issued an ultimatum to the president to form a new government in 10 days or face further escalation. Southern separatists have seized the opportunity to renew their call for independence, holding large-scale rallies and giving the government until 30 November to remove all employees and security forces from the south.

In eastern Lebanon, Syria-based jihadi group Jabhat al-Nusra expanded its war of attrition with Hizbollah by attacking several of the group’s strongholds and leaving dozens dead. Meanwhile, scores were killed in and around Tripoli in late October when the army clashed with Sunni militants. Army raids in northern Lebanon, Saida and Beirut followed, with tens of alleged “terrorists” arrested.

Clashes between police and pro-government militias, otherwise known as “colectivos”, in Venezuela’s capital left five militiamen including their leader José Odreman dead and raised concerns over the government’s ability to exert its control. The subsequent dismissal of the Interior and Justice Minister Miguel Rodriguez Torres, accused by the colectivos of assassinating Odreman, and ongoing calls for the dismissal of the National Assembly president have only deepened the regime’s instability. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s economy continued to deteriorate, with a rapid fall in oil prices raising the spectre of a default on the country’s external debt. (See our latest briefing on Venezuela’s political crisis.)

In Mexico the disappearance of 43 students in Guerrero, apparently at the hands of local police with links to organised crime, triggered massive, sometimes violent, protests. The federal government has arrested a number of suspects and uncovered several mass graves, but so far failed to find the students or identify their remains. The case appears to expose yet again local and perhaps state-level complicity with criminal groups, as well as the failure of the federal government to control violence and widespread impunity.

Hostilities between India and Pakistan continued along Kashmir’s Line of Control (LoC) and the working boundary dividing Pakistan and India-administered Kashmir, with each side accusing the other of unprovoked firing. The clashes were accompanied by unusually aggressive rhetoric from the Indian government, causing concern that the Pakistani government, currently engaged in a power struggle with the military over the country’s India policy, will see its political options narrow further.

December saw a significant deterioration of the security situation – compared to the previous month – in nine countries or conflict situations in the world, including in South Asia (Pakistan and India), and East Africa (South Sudan and Kenya). There is a risk of increased violence in the coming month in Sudan, where major offensives are anticipated on the heels of a failure in the peace talks; in Sri Lanka, in the context of the 8 January elections; and in Haiti, where the current president could rule by decree unless parliament's mandate, due to expire on 12 January, is extended. On a positive note, the Colombia peace talks emerged strengthened in December, and relations between Cuba and the U.S. dramatically improved.

In South Asia, both Pakistan and India experienced severe violent attacks. In Pakistan, the deadliest ever attack by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) took place on 16 December on a military-run school in Peshawar, killing at least 148, including 132 children. The military retaliated by escalating operations against militants in the tribal belt. The government introduced a counter-terrorism “National Action Plan”, including the establishment of military-run courts, which would require a constitutional amendment undermining fundamental rights and due process. It also lifted a moratorium on the death penalty, leading to the execution of several non-TTP militants allegedly responsible for past attacks on the military. (See our recent report). In India’s north east, militant Bodo separatists killed over 70 people in several attacks across Assam state on 23 December. The attacks, which reportedly targeted Adivasi settlers and came in response to several Bodo deaths during the army’s ongoing counter-insurgency operation in the area, prompted retaliatory vigilante assaults on Bodos and an intensification of the military campaign. In Sri Lanka, as the race tightened ahead of the 8 January presidential election between joint opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena and President Rajapaksa, an increasingly volatile campaign environment, including numerous attacks on opposition activists and rallies, raised concerns about the possibility of serious election related violence. (See our new report on the January presidential election and blog post published today).

In the Horn of Africa, both Sudan and South Sudan saw serious armed clashes. In South Sudan, peace talks between warring parties ground to a halt. Both sides remain at odds over the details of a power-sharing deal, in particular the powers that SPLM-IO leader Riek Machar would have as premier of a transitional government. Clashes between the opposing forces continued despite the recommitment in November to a cessation of hostilities agreement, including in Nasir town where fighting between government and SPLA-IO forces is ongoing. There is a risk attacks will escalate into major offensives if no political agreement is reached. (See our new report). Peace negotiations in Sudan floundered as the government continued to reject a comprehensive approach to talks with rebel groups in Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan. Violence is already on the rise, and major offensives are anticipated if the talks fail. The government has stepped up pressure on the UN presence, expelling two UN officials in late December. Somalia’s Al-Shabaab militants continued to step up attacks in Kenya. On 2 December 36 non-Muslim workers were killed at a quarry near Mandera, prompting hundreds to flee the town. Thirteen were injured and one killed in an attack by suspected Islamist militants on a club in Wajir. The government’s clampdown continued, as President Uhuru Kenyatta signed into law an anti-terror bill that is widely contested and seen by many as draconian. (See our recent report)

Elsewhere in Africa, government rule was challenged in both Gambia and Gabon prompting a crackdown. In Gambia, the military foiled a coup attempt against President Yahya Jammeh. Three coup plotters were reportedly killed as the military repulsed the 30 December attack on the presidential palace in the capital Banjul. Dozens of military personnel and civilians were subsequently arrested and, according to Gambian official sources, a weapons cache found. President Jammeh, who was abroad at the time of the coup attempt, has accused dissidents based in the U.S., UK and Germany of masterminding the attack and alluded to suspected foreign support. The government in Gabon violently cracked down on protesters demanding the resignation of President Ali Bongo Ondimba. On 20 December, protesters clashed with security forces – officials reported one killed, but protesters suggested at least three. Several opposition leaders were detained by police in late December.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, political crisis deepened in both Venezuela and Haiti. In Venezuela, President Nicolás Maduro’s government pushed through a number of appointments to key institutions with a simple majority vote, installing government allies in the judiciary and other branches of state. In doing so it has violated a number of legal and constitutional requirements designed to ensure that nominees are impartial and of good repute. The opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance abstained in all the appointments in protest. (See our latest report and recent blog post). Haiti’s political crisis over its long-overdue elections intensified, with mass protests demanding the resignation of President Michel Martelly even after Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe resigned, and calling for polls to take place. There were fears of further violence with parliament’s mandate set to expire on 12 January, leaving Haiti without a functioning government and meaning Martelly would rule by decree. On 30 December, Martelly reached a deal with the senate and the chamber of deputies to extend their mandate, however lawmakers still need to approve the deal and agree on an acceptable provisional electoral council.

In Russia’s North Caucasus region and in Libya the situation deteriorated in December. In the North Caucasus, fifteen police, two civilians and eleven militants were killed, and 36 police injured, in a shootout between rebel gunmen and police in the Chechen capital Grozny in the early hours of 4 December. An Islamist group claimed responsibility for the raid. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov announced that relatives of militants responsible would be punished; sixteen houses belonging to insurgents’ relatives were later destroyed. Meanwhile, the leader of the Caucasus Emirate's Dagestan network and several insurgency leaders from Dagestan and Chechnya pledged loyalty to Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. In Libya, multiple new frontlines emerged across the country, with heavy clashes in the south, west and east between the military allies of the country’s two rival parliaments. The fighting deepened the conflict between the two political bodies. A UN-sponsored political dialogue was again postponed due to disagreements over participants.

On a positive note, there was progress both in Colombia and Cuba. In Colombia, peace talks with FARC emerged strengthened from the crisis triggered by the kidnapping of an army general in November. The guerrillas declared an unprecedented, indefinite unilateral ceasefire, which entered into force on 20 December. President Santos welcomed the ceasefire but rejected demands for third party verification and said that security forces would continue operations. There are questions about sustainability, but if the ceasefire holds, it will help break the ground for ending decades of conflict. Expectations that exploratory talks with the ELN could finally develop into formal negotiations are rising, after the country’s second guerrilla group said it would make a “special announcement” in early January. (See our recent report on the challenges of ending the Colombian conflict). December saw a dramatic improvement in relations between Cuba and the U.S., with the U.S. announcement on 17 December that it would normalise ties with the island. The possibility of an end to the decades-long U.S. embargo of Cuba is set to transform political relations across the hemisphere (see our blog post on U.S.-Cuban relations).

The year opened with a worsening of the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Nigeria and Ukraine, each with potentially major regional implications. Violence escalated in Sudan, as well as in Lebanon's Tripoli and along its southern border with Israel, and a deadly clash between police and militants in the southern Philippines threatened to derail the peace process there. In South Asia, both Bangladesh and Nepal saw political tensions intensify. On a positive note, the Sri Lanka elections resulted in a peaceful transition of power from long-time President Mahinda Rajapaksa to Maithripala Sirisena, despite initial fears of election-related violence.

Yemen’s downward spiral took yet another dramatic turn. President Hadi and the government resigned on 22 January after Huthi rebels consolidated control over Sanaa and put Hadi under virtual house arrest. The entire political process established with the signing of a UN-backed peace and power-sharing agreement in September has been thrown into question, raising the prospect of territorial fragmentation, economic meltdown and widespread violence – as outlined in our Conflict Alert. There is little external actors can do at this point, except possibly Saudi Arabia and Iran, to influence Yemen’s internal political dynamics. The Huthis have set a 4 February deadline for all parties to reach a power-sharing agreement or they will assume control of the state through a “revolutionary leadership”. Yemen again made international headlines for its connection with global terrorism as al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Yemen’s local branch, claimed responsibility for the 7 January Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris.

The significant increase in Boko Haram attacks in Nigeria’s north throughout 2014 was compounded by what may have been the insurgent group’s deadliest attack yet. Reports suggest in early January they killed anywhere between 150 and 2,500 civilians in Borno state. As the February elections loom, there is a danger that ongoing insecurity in the north could worsen potential political violence and undermine the credibility of the polls, as discussed in our recent report on violence and the elections.

The most intense fighting for many months in eastern Ukraine resulted in heavy civilian and military casualties and a significant increase in internally displaced civilians, and further undermined peace talks. It also led to heightened concern in Western capitals that Russia has not abandoned the idea of open military intervention. The stated aim of the separatists is to seize the totality of Donetsk oblast, but there is so far no conclusive change in the balance of military power in the east. The possibility of a resumption of full-fledged hostilities, and the risk of a humanitarian crisis during winter, were discussed in our recent report. Without immediate and forceful international intervention to end the fighting, the current offensive could herald the beginning of a new and very costly military conflict.

As anticipated last month, violence once again increased in Sudan following the collapse of peace talks between the government and rebel groups in Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan, as both sides launched major offensives in the disputed areas. (See our new report). In late January, a Hizbollah attack on an Israeli military convoy along Lebanon’s southern border – retaliation for an Israeli airstrike that killed six of its fighters in the Golan Heights – caused fears of an impending all-out confrontation, although both parties said they wanted to avoid a costly escalation. Earlier in January, a deadly suicide attack in Tripoli shook the relative calm that had prevailed in the city for months. In the southern Philippines, 44 police and at least seven civilians were killed in a clash between police and MILF militants, undermining support for last year’s historical peace agreement between the government and the longstanding rebel group at a critical time in its implementation.

In South Asia, the first anniversary of Bangladesh’s disputed January 2014 elections saw dozens killed in clashes between government and opposition groups, and marked the start of a new phase of the political deadlock between the ruling Awami League and opposition Bangladesh National Party. Tensions between Nepal’s political parties worsened when they failed to reach consensus on a draft constitution before a self-imposed 22 January deadline. Sri Lanka’s long-time President Mahinda Rajapaksa surprised many observers when he conceded defeat to opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena in the 8 January presidential election, following a largely peaceful election day. Sirisena has promised reform, including more meaningful devolution of power and accountability. However, international pressure and support will be needed for those promises to be met and the political transition to succeed (as discussed in our recent briefing).

Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia – Disaster Risk Reduction Fact Sheet #1, Fiscal Year (FY) 2014

The year opened with a worsening of the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Nigeria and Ukraine, each with potentially major regional implications. Violence escalated in Sudan, as well as in Lebanon's Tripoli and along its southern border with Israel, and a deadly clash between police and militants in the southern Philippines threatened to derail the peace process there. In South Asia, both Bangladesh and Nepal saw political tensions intensify. On a positive note, the Sri Lanka elections resulted in a peaceful transition of power from long-time President Mahinda Rajapaksa to Maithripala Sirisena, despite initial fears of election-related violence.

Yemen’s downward spiral took yet another dramatic turn. President Hadi and the government resigned on 22 January after Huthi rebels consolidated control over Sanaa and put Hadi under virtual house arrest. The entire political process established with the signing of a UN-backed peace and power-sharing agreement in September has been thrown into question, raising the prospect of territorial fragmentation, economic meltdown and widespread violence – as outlined in our Conflict Alert. There is little external actors can do at this point, except possibly Saudi Arabia and Iran, to influence Yemen’s internal political dynamics. The Huthis have set a 4 February deadline for all parties to reach a power-sharing agreement or they will assume control of the state through a “revolutionary leadership”. Yemen again made international headlines for its connection with global terrorism as al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Yemen’s local branch, claimed responsibility for the 7 January Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris.

The significant increase in Boko Haram attacks in Nigeria’s north throughout 2014 was compounded by what may have been the insurgent group’s deadliest attack yet. Reports suggest in early January they killed anywhere between 150 and 2,500 civilians in Borno state. As the February elections loom, there is a danger that ongoing insecurity in the north could worsen potential political violence and undermine the credibility of the polls, as discussed in our recent report on violence and the elections.

The most intense fighting for many months in eastern Ukraine resulted in heavy civilian and military casualties and a significant increase in internally displaced civilians, and further undermined peace talks. It also led to heightened concern in Western capitals that Russia has not abandoned the idea of open military intervention. The stated aim of the separatists is to seize the totality of Donetsk oblast, but there is so far no conclusive change in the balance of military power in the east. The possibility of a resumption of full-fledged hostilities, and the risk of a humanitarian crisis during winter, were discussed in our recent report. Without immediate and forceful international intervention to end the fighting, the current offensive could herald the beginning of a new and very costly military conflict.

As anticipated last month, violence once again increased in Sudan following the collapse of peace talks between the government and rebel groups in Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan, as both sides launched major offensives in the disputed areas. (See our new report). In late January, a Hizbollah attack on an Israeli military convoy along Lebanon’s southern border – retaliation for an Israeli airstrike that killed six of its fighters in the Golan Heights – caused fears of an impending all-out confrontation, although both parties said they wanted to avoid a costly escalation. Earlier in January, a deadly suicide attack in Tripoli shook the relative calm that had prevailed in the city for months. In the southern Philippines, 44 police and at least seven civilians were killed in a clash between police and MILF militants, undermining support for last year’s historical peace agreement between the government and the longstanding rebel group at a critical time in its implementation.

In South Asia, the first anniversary of Bangladesh’s disputed January 2014 elections saw dozens killed in clashes between government and opposition groups, and marked the start of a new phase of the political deadlock between the ruling Awami League and opposition Bangladesh National Party. Tensions between Nepal’s political parties worsened when they failed to reach consensus on a draft constitution before a self-imposed 22 January deadline. Sri Lanka’s long-time President Mahinda Rajapaksa surprised many observers when he conceded defeat to opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena in the 8 January presidential election, following a largely peaceful election day. Sirisena has promised reform, including more meaningful devolution of power and accountability. However, international pressure and support will be needed for those promises to be met and the political transition to succeed (as discussed in our recent briefing).

July 2015 – Trends

• Deteriorated situations
  Cameroon, Chad, Egypt, Kashmir, Turkey, Yemen

• Improved situations
  Colombia

August 2015 – Watchlist

• Conflict risk alerts
  Turkey, Yemen

-Conflict resolution opportunities
Iran, South Sudan